{"id":485,"date":"2020-06-10T13:47:12","date_gmt":"2020-06-10T17:47:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/penncreativestrategy.coydhea2-liquidwebsites.com\/2020-6-10-how-to-plan-for-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2022-07-15T17:16:52","modified_gmt":"2022-07-15T21:16:52","slug":"2020-6-10-how-to-plan-for-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.penncreativestrategy.com\/2020-6-10-how-to-plan-for-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenario planning as a tool for uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Molly Penn<\/p>\n

Our whole world has shifted in dramatic, life-changing ways in the span of four short months.\u00a0 First there was (is) the global pandemic, which we now know will be part of our “new normal” for a long time to come.\u00a0 Then there was the brutal murder of George Floyd, which was the latest incident in a long history of white supremacy and policy brutality – but there is hope that this will be the last of these incidents as we fight for social change.\u00a0 We are all raw, vulnerable, angry, sad and ignited, hopeful, passionate and ready to fight.<\/p>\n

CEOs have had to pivot their services, their management of now remote staff and stave off financial losses as best they can in only 4 months.\u00a0 They are exhausted.\u00a0 Now they are\u00a0planning for the reopening process which just began this week.\u00a0 With an atmosphere of triage all around us, how are we supposed to plan farther out than next week?\u00a0 Yet we operate in a world that requires a degree of confidence from us that we know where we are going.\u00a0 Boards need that, funders need it, our staff needs it, our clients need it most of all.<\/p>\n

Scenario planning is not a panacea – it is not a magic process that will conjure certainty.\u00a0 It is, however, a process that will help\u00a0you feel prepared for how the future might unfold.\u00a0 What stakeholders need from us is confidence, not certainty.<\/p>\n

how does scenario planning work?<\/h2>\n

Scenario planning a much quicker process than traditional strategic planning, which makes it helpful in a quickly shifting environment. It is also typically not as long term in its planning horizon. Many people think of scenario planning as a budgeting process – budgeting for for various possible financial outcomes. That is definitely a part of scenario planning, but you also need to think about what you will DO – what programs you will run, whether you need to merge, what services you will provide. So, we\u2019ll walk you through the process of scenario planning here.<\/p>\n

first determine your strategic focus<\/h3>\n

What is it you are trying to understand by engaging in scenario planning? It could be as broad as how do we preserve our mission amidst this upheaval? Or it could be more specific, such as should we merge with xyz organization? It is important to understand and define the question you are seeking to answer as part of the scenario planning process.<\/p>\n

then identify a list of driving forces of change<\/h3>\n

Driving forces are factors in the world outside our organization that will change in ways we must respond to in our organizations. Take the economy for example – it we go into another recession, that will affect how we lead and manage our organizations. Our process starts by posing a simple question:<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat do we see as the driving forces in our society that will most influence all of us going forward?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

You can ask this question of internal stakeholders (board and senior staff) or if you feel you need a broader perspective, you can ask some external stakeholders to weigh in (funders, educators, journalists, constituents).<\/p>\n

now distill the list to the two most critical uncertainties<\/h3>\n

Now your task is to distill that list down to only two – those that meet the following two criteria:<\/p>\n